After a blunder: what the next move looks like at every rating
Every player knows the feeling: one bad move, and the game falls apart. Our counts of 150,000 online games show that the feeling is right, and that it's the same at every rating. What separates ratings is what happens around the other player's mistakes.
How we counted
A slip is a move that costs at least 10 points of winning chances, out of 100. Numbers are from rapid games unless labeled. Ratings are Lichess ratings.
Mistakes come in pairs, at every rating
| Slips per 100 moves (rapid) | Under 800 | 800–1199 | 1200–1599 | 1600–1999 | 2000+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Any move | 15 | 13 | 11 | 9 | 7 |
| The move right after your own slip | 34 | 28 | 24 | 20 | 17 |
The move after a slip is more than twice as likely to be another slip, from under 800 to over 2000. Strong players slip less overall, but the jump after a slip is just as big for them.
Part of this is chess, not nerves: a mistake often makes the position sharper and harder, so the next move really is more difficult. Either way, the move after a mistake is where the next one hides.
It also adds up. Split the gap between neighboring rating groups, and moves played right after your own slip account for 60% of it from under 800 to the 800s and 1000s, 49% to 1200, 42% to 1600, and 29% past 1600. (These overlap with other situations, so the shares aren't separate slices.)
Giving the gift back
When an opponent makes a big mistake, the next move matters. In blitz, players under 800 answer a big blunder with a mistake of their own on the very next move in about 50 games out of 100. At 2000 and up, about 24.
| Gave an opponent's blunder straight back, per 100 blitz games | Under 800 | 800–1199 | 1200–1599 | 1600–1999 | 2000+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 | 42 | 36 | 34 | 24 |
Lower-rated players get more gifts and give more of them back. The moment after the opponent's mistake is exactly when you need to slow down: the position just changed, and the obvious capture or recapture isn't always the best.
Saving lost games, and fighting back
| Saved a lost game (drew or won), per 100 blitz games | Under 800 | 800–1199 | 1200–1599 | 1600–1999 | 2000+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 10 |
Saving lost games gets rarer as ratings rise, because stronger opponents give fewer gifts back. But among players at the same rating, some fight back far more than others, and those players:
- score a little above what their rating predicts,
- convert more of their winning positions,
- and lose on time less.
They also get checkmated more, because they play on in lost positions instead of resigning. In blitz, 42% of losses under 800 end in checkmate and 13% at 2000+; at 2000+, 59% of losses end in resignation. Below the level where opponents reliably finish you off, playing on is worth points. (More in What's your chess style?)
What to work on
- After your own mistake, take the next move slowly. It's twice as likely to go wrong. Reset: what does the position need now, not what did you plan before?
- After your opponent's mistake, slow down too. Find the punishment before playing the natural move.
- Don't resign early below 1600. Opponents at these ratings give back a lot of lost positions.
In your report: the findings on where your slips cluster, and your fighting-back (Recovery) score, show how you play after mistakes next to players at your rating.
Common questions
What is tilt in chess? The run of mistakes that follows one. At every rating, the move right after a mistake is more than twice as likely to be another. The numbers can't tell nerves from a position that just got harder.
What should I do after a blunder? Take the next move slowly, and ask what the position needs now rather than what you planned before. Do the same after your opponent's blunder: find the punishment before playing the natural move.
When should I resign in chess? Later than you think below 1600. Opponents at these ratings give back many lost positions: in blitz, players under 800 save about 18 lost games in 100. At 2000+, 59% of losses end in resignation.
About these numbers
- Games: 150,000 Lichess games from August 2026 with Lichess's own engine evaluations, players' names removed. Rapid: 2,742 player-games under 800 up to 30,707 at 1200–1599.
- Blitz figures (gifts given back, games saved, how losses ended, fighting back) come from 19,959 games by 100 public Lichess players, 20 per rating group.
- Written and counted by Plysight. Updated twice a year.
See what happens after your mistakes. Your last 200 games from chess.com or Lichess, or a PGN file. Free, no account.