Fabiano Caruana's chess, by the numbers
October 16, 2026 · 273 games: the last 200 blitz on chess.com, August to October 2026, and 73 classical, 2024 to 2026
Caruana's last 200 blitz games on chess.com and their classical games of the last two years, every move checked by Stockfish, counted the way anyone's games are. Here is what the count found.
Caruana is the defending U.S. champion, playing for a fifth title in a row at the 2026 U.S. Chess Championship in St. Louis. In round 5, on October 14, 2026, they lost to Andy Woodward, their first defeat in the event in 54 games. "I didn't play too well, and I was under pressure the whole game," they said afterward (chess.com's round-6 report, by Anthony Levin, October 15, 2026). The next day they beat Sam Shankland and shares the lead with three others.
This page counts how they play rather than how they are doing: their last 200 blitz games on chess.com and their classical games from the Candidates, the Sinquefield Cup, Norway Chess, the Grand Swiss and two Olympiads, every move checked by the engine, with the same questions a club player's games get asked.
How they play
Every player gets one of four profiles from two measures: how often they force matters with a check or a capture, against what the position asks for, and how rarely one of their pieces is left loose. Caruana's pieces are rarely loose (88 of 100 in blitz, 98 in classical; the line is at 64). On forcing they sit a shade under the line, 49 in blitz and 47 in classical, where Carlsen (50) and So (49) sit too: the Steady Hand, quiet play with the pieces kept safe. The other blitz scores: closing 89, accuracy 81, recovery 66; in classical, accuracy 93 and closing 100.
Caruana plays long blitz games.
74 of 200 blitz games went past move 60
The median Caruana blitz game lasts 51 moves, and 74 of the 200 went past move 60, where they scored 62%. Carlsen's last 200 blitz games: 31 past move 60, median 38. Of the five players counted this week, only Mishra's games run longer (87 of 200). Twenty-six of Caruana's wins came on the clock, against nine losses that way. The slower control suits them a little: 76% at 5+0 (66 games), 74% at 3+0 (134).
Once clearly winning, they finish it.
89% of decisive advantages converted in blitz
Caruana reached a decisive advantage in 142 blitz games and won 127 of them (89%); 8 were drawn and 7 lost. For scale, from the same count: Carlsen 93% (149 of 161), So 88%, Liang 85%, Mishra 78%; Lichess blitz players rated 2000 and up convert 79% of the games they are clearly winning. In 73 classical games from 2024 to 2026, they reached a decisive advantage 21 times and won all 21.
21 of 37 losses had no blunder in them.
21 of 37 blitz losses had no blunder in them
Of their 37 blitz losses, 21 have no single move that cost 30 or more points of winning chances: they were outplayed a little at a time. Carlsen's share is 15 of 28, So's 20 of 32, Liang's 36 of 47. When a Caruana loss does turn on one move, it is most often a rook move: 40 of their 96 moves that cost 30 points or more were rook moves, 27 queen moves. In classical it is 9 of 10 losses with no blunder, and one move in 73 games that cost 30 points; the average loss a move against the engine's choice is a tenth of a pawn, and the first serious mistake typically lands on move 55.
1.e4, more than half the time.
58% of 104 blitz games as White opened with e4
As White in blitz, Caruana opened with e4 60 times (58%), d4 29 (28%), then c4 and Nf3 six times each, Nc3 twice and b3 once. Most players have one first move they play more than half the time, and their is 1.e4; Carlsen's biggest, 1.d4, is 40%, So's is 1.Nf3 at 41%, and Liang's 1.e4 is 89%. As Black they answer 1.e4 with 1…e5 in 20 of 34 games and 1.d4 with 1…d5 in 30 of 47.
Checkmate in one: taken 15 times of 17.
15 of 17 mates in one on the board were played
When checkmate in one was on the board, Caruana played it 15 of 17 times. When a trade left an opponent's piece with no defender, they took it 23 of 24 times. The clock decided 8 of their 134 games at 3+0: 7 they won while behind on the board, 1 they lost while ahead.
In classical, the Black games are the harder half.
0.66 points a game as White in classical, against 0.49 as Black
In 73 classical games from 2024 to 2026 (the Candidates among the sources) Caruana scores 0.66 points a game as White and 0.49 as Black. The first move is worth about 0.05 in most players' games, so most of the gap is their own, and it is made of losses: 8 of 36 games as Black were lost (22%), 3 of 37 as White (8%). The draws are near even, 51% as White and 58% as Black. In blitz the gap is small: 76% as White, 73% as Black.
The full reports
- Caruana's blitz report
200 blitz games (3+0 and 5+0) on chess.com as FabianoCaruana, August to October 2026: 135 wins, 28 draws, 37 losses. Download the games (PGN) - Caruana's classical report
73 classical games, 2024 to 2026: the FIDE Candidates 2026 (14), the Sinquefield Cup 2025 and 2026 (9 each), the Superbet Classic Romania 2026 (9), Norway Chess 2025 (10), the Olympiads of 2024 (10) and 2026 (9), the Bundesliga (3), from Lichess's broadcasts. 22 wins, 40 draws, 11 losses. Download the games (PGN)
Each report opens as a deck of slides, one finding to a slide, with the positions behind every number. A blunder is a move that cost 30 or more points of winning chances; winning chances are the engine's estimate of how likely a player is to win, from 0 to 100.
How this was measured
Plysight analyzes games the same way for everyone: Stockfish evaluates every move, and the findings are counted from those evaluations. The reports compare a player with others at their rating where a fair comparison exists; at Caruana's rating there is none, so those lines are left out. Advice lines, written for a player reading their own report, are left out too. The six house words the reports use are defined on each report's last slide.
Blitz games from chess.com's public archive of fabianocaruana; classical games from Lichess's broadcasts. Plysight is independent of chess.com, Lichess and Caruana. Caruana's FIDE profile. Published October 16, 2026; updated October 16, 2026.
Piece art by Cburnett, CC BY-SA 3.0.